SHAPE Journal

ABSTRACT:

This paper addresses a part of the methodology involved in Well-Informed Speculation, which is an essential process in Science to turn both extensive and careful observation with various isolated and extracted relations into a much wider attempt at Explanation – in other words, to develop a Theory. The paper is mostly concerned with a type of “fuzzy logic” as it appears in dichotomous trees, where DON’T KNOW answers are allowed in addition to the usual YES or NO responses within a tree of structured diagnostic questions. It demonstrates how, in spite of a series of such DON’T KNOW answers, surprisingly useful conclusions can still be extracted.

Indeed, spectrums of diagnoses are often sufficient for quite definitive conclusions, and even certainty can be possible, even when several such DON’T KNOWs are entered in response to questions, which would be expected to lead to confusion, yet instead can be shown to be irrelevant by later clearly inappropriate following questions, which prove that the current path being followed is quite obviously mistaken and can be abandoned..

Finally, the value of correcting loops, to home in on the Truth, are described as an established part of the processes of Abstraction.